CLIVE, Iowa — There's very little Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on these days, but Iowa's importance to their political futures is one exception. Tuesday's primary elections will kick off a sprint to November that includes three competitive House races and a Senate race that will help decide control of each chamber of Congress. The open governor's race is one of a handful in the country that experts say could change hands this fall. Iowa is a state where the institutional strengths and weaknesses of Democrats and Republicans alike are on heightened display in a midterm election year.
President Trump faces record-low approval ratings, rising gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran and affordability concerns. His grip on the Republican Party is stronger than ever, with the few remaining Congressional lawmakers that have notably crossed him ousted in recent primaries. The national Democratic Party brand is also historically unpopular, even as Democrats continue to see rising enthusiasm in primary election turnout, overperformances in special elections and a polling advantage five months out from Election Day. So how does the national mood map onto Iowa's elections?
At the Iowa Faith and Freedom coalition's spring kickoff event, a record crowd filled the Horizon Events center near Des Moines to hear from Texas Republican Sen. "The last year and four months with President Trump in office, with a Republican Senate and Republican House, we have won more victories than at any time since we have been alive," Cruz said. Those victories, he said, include falling illegal immigration, drastic reductions in crime rates and the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," a sweeping measure full of tax cuts and spending priorities. Kim Reynolds ticked through some of the accomplishments she said she and Iowa Republicans notched at the state level, like rising test scores, top rankings for affordability and wage growth and restricting access to abortion.
Reynolds said the policy accomplishments of the Republican-led state with two Republican Senators and all four House districts represented . "It matters in Iowa, and it matters in D. C., where every single problem that President Trump is currently fixing — inflation, Iran, open borders, illegal immigration — was caused ," she said. But the crowd of about 1,100 conservative Christians also heard the flip side of that as a warning.
"The Democrats have put a bullseye on the state of Iowa," Cruz said. They want to turn Iowa blue." In midterm elections, the party in power nationally usually struggles to convince voters they should keep control. This year is shaping up to be no different, said Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for the open Senate seat on the ballot.